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Q4 2021 Net Employment Outlook (NEO)

More than 1,500 Canada employers were asked about their hiring intentions for the fourth quarter of 2021.

Plan to Hire
Expect to Let Staff Go
Plan to Keep Work Levels Steady
Unsure About Hiring Plans
 

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Q4 2021 NEO: - % *

Hiring Outlooks Across the Canada

Alternative content for the map

33%

Western Canada (WC)

45%

Ontario (ON)

42%

Quebec (QC)

53%

(AC)

20 Years of Employment Data

 

Canada Employment Outlook

Canadian employers report bright hiring prospects for the October to December period. While 50% of employers expect to increase payrolls, 11% anticipate a decrease and 35% forecast no change, resulting in a Net Employment Outlook of +39%. Once the data is adjusted to allow for seasonal variation, the Outlook stands at +40%. Hiring sentiment is the strongest since the survey began more than four decades ago, strengthening by 31 percentage points in comparison with the prior quarter and by 35 percentage points when compared with the same period last year.

Organization-Size Comparisons

Participating employers are categorized into one of four organization sizes: Micro businesses have less than 10 employees; Small businesses have 10-49 employees; Medium businesses have 50-249 employees; and Large businesses have 250 or more employees.

Payroll gains are expected in all four organization size categories during the next three months. The strongest hiring plans are reported by Large- and Micro-size employers, with Net Employment Outlooks of +49% and +46%, respectively. Elsewhere, Medium employers report an Outlook of +38%, while the Outlook for Small firms stands at +28%.

In a comparison with the previous quarter, Micro employers report a sharp increase of 44 percentage points. The Outlook for Large firms improves by 26 percentage points and hiring prospects are 18 and17 percentage points stronger for Medium- and Small-size employers, respectively.

Hiring sentiment also strengthens in all four organization size categories when compared with this time one year ago, most notably by 46 percentage points for Micro employers. Medium employers report an increase of 32 percentage points, while improvements of 30 and 29 percentage points are reported in the Small- and Large-size categories, respectively.

Regional Comparisons

Atlantic Canada

The strongest hiring climate since regional data was first analyzed in 2004 is expected during the next three months. Employers report a bullish Net Employment Outlook of +53%, improving by 42 percentage points when compared with the previous quarter and by 48 percentage points year-over-year.

In the fourth quarter of 2021, detailed analysis of industry sector scores in Atlantic Canada is only available for the Services sector, where employers anticipate a booming labour market during the next three months, reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +59%. Hiring plans in the sector improve by 47 percentage points when compared with the previous quarter and by 57 percentage points year-over-year.

Analysis of the Atlantic Canada areas is only available for Halifax in the upcoming quarter. Employers in Halifax report bright hiring prospects with an Outlook of +34%, improving by 10 percentage points quarter-over-quarter and by 43 percentage points when compared with this time one year ago.

Ontario

Job seekers can expect to benefit from a dynamic labour market in the fourth quarter of 2021, according to employers who report a Net Employment Outlook of +45%. Hiring plans are the strongest reported since the regional analysis began 18 years ago, improving by 39 and 36 percentage points in comparison with Quarter 3 2021 and the same period last year, respectively.

Detailed analysis of industry sector scores in Ontario is only available for nine of the 10 industry sectors, with no figures available for the Mining sector. Employers in all nine industry sectors expect to add to payrolls during the upcoming quarter. The strongest hiring intentions are reported in the Services sector, where the Net Employment Outlook is +89%, and bullish hiring plans are also reported for the Manufacturing – Durables sector and the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector, with Outlooks of +56% and +51%, respectively. Elsewhere, Outlooks stand at +48% in the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector and at +46% in the Manufacturing – Non-Durables sector. A bright hiring climate is reported in the Construction sector, where the Outlook is +38%, and for the Public Administration sector with an Outlook of +36%.

Hiring prospects strengthen in all nine industry sectors when compared with the previous quarter, most notably by 83 percentage points in the Services sector and by 50 percentage points in the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector. The Manufacturing – Durables sector Outlook is 44 percentage points stronger, and improvements of 39 and 37 percentage points are reported for the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector and the Manufacturing – Non-Durables sector, respectively. Construction sector employers report an increase of 28 percentage points, while the Outlook for the Education sector is 26 percentage points stronger.

Year-over-year comparison is only available for eight of the 10 Ontario industry sectors for the coming quarter, with no figures available for the Education sector and the Mining sector. Hiring sentiment strengthens in all eight sectors, including a steep increase of 87 percentage points for the Services sector. Improvements of 47 and 43 percentage points are reported in the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector and the Manufacturing – Durables sector, respectively, while Manufacturing – Non-Durables sector employers report an increase of 38 percentage points. The Outlook for the Construction sector improves by 34 percentage points and hiring plans are 31 percentage points stronger in the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector.

Analysis is only available for five of the 24 Ontario areas in the coming quarter. In addition, year-over-year analysis is only available in three areas. Employers in all five areas expect to add to payrolls during the October to December period. Hamilton employers forecast booming hiring activity with an Outlook of +77%, while Outlooks stand at +45% and +38% in Mississauga and Toronto, respectively. Elsewhere, the Brampton Outlook of +33% reflects robust hiring plans, while the Ottawa Outlook is +27%.

Hiring sentiment strengthens in all five areas when compared with the previous quarter, most notably by 70 percentage points in Hamilton. Increases of 37 and 36 percentage points are reported in Mississauga and Toronto, respectively, and Brampton employers report an improvement of 24 percentage points.

When compared with the same period last year, hiring plans improve in the three areas where data is available, most notably by 67 percentage points in Hamilton. Toronto employers report an increase of 37 percentage points and the Outlook for Ottawa is 16 percentage points stronger.

Quebec

With a Net Employment Outlook of +48%, employers anticipate vigorous hiring activity in the October to December period. Hiring prospects improve by 32 percentage points quarter-over-quarter and by 45 percentage points year-over-year, resulting in the strongest forecast since the regional analysis began in 2004.

Detailed analysis of industry sector scores in Quebec is only available for two of the 10 industry sectors for the fourth quarter of 2021. In the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector, employers anticipate a booming labour market in the next three months, reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +75%. Meanwhile, Services sector employers expect a healthy hiring pace with an Outlook of +28%. Quarter-over-quarter analysis is available for the Services sector, where hiring plans improve by 16 percentage points.

Analysis is only available for two of Quebec’s five areas in the coming quarter. An increase in payrolls is forecast for both Montreal and Quebec City during the next three months, with Outlooks standing at +42% and +29%, respectively.

In a comparison with the prior quarter, hiring plans improve by 34 percentage points in Montreal, but weaken by 3 percentage points in Quebec City.

Hiring prospects improve in both areas when compared with this time one year ago, by 43 percentage points in Montreal and by 24 percentage points in Quebec City.

Western Canada

Employers anticipate solid payroll gains during the next three months, reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +29%. Hiring sentiment is the strongest in 14 years, improving by 16 percentage points when compared with the previous quarter and by 28 percentage points in comparison with last year at this time.

Detailed analysis of industry sector scores in Western Canada is only available for nine of the 10 industry sectors, with no figures available for the Mining sector. Employers in all nine industry sectors anticipate an increase in payrolls during the coming quarter. The strongest hiring sentiment is reported by Manufacturing – Non-Durables sector employers with a Net Employment Outlook of +53%. Manufacturing – Durables sector employers also forecast a dynamic labour market, reporting an Outlook of +41%, and Outlooks stand at +37% and +35% in the Construction sector and the Services sector, respectively. Elsewhere, solid hiring plans are reported in the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector, where the Outlook is +30%, and in the Education sector, with an Outlook of +28%. Public Administration sector employers forecast an active hiring climate with an Outlook of +26%.

When compared with the previous quarter, hiring prospects improve in eight of the nine industry sectors. A sharp increase of 42 percentage points is reported in the Manufacturing – Non-Durables sector, and Outlooks are 35 and 31 percentage points stronger in the Construction sector and the Services sector, respectively. Hiring plans in the Manufacturing – Durables sector improve by 22 percentage points, while an increase of 21 percentage points is reported by Education sector employers. However, Wholesale & Retail Trade sector employers report a decline of 6 percentage points.

Year-over-year comparison is only available for eight of the 10 Western Canada industry sectors for the coming quarter, with no figures available for the Education sector and the Mining sector. Outlooks strengthen in seven of the eight industry sectors, most notably by 44 percentage points in the Manufacturing – Non-Durables sector and by 39 percentage points in the Construction sector. Increases of 37 and 36 percentage points are reported for the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector and the Manufacturing – Durables sector, respectively, and the Services sector Outlook improves by 33 percentage points. Meanwhile, Transportation & Public Utilities sector employers report a decline of 7 percentage points.

Analysis is only available for four of the 11 Western Canada areas in the final quarter of 2021. Workforce gains are anticipated in all four areas, with the strongest Outlook of +35% reported in Edmonton. Winnipeg employers report healthy hiring prospects with an Outlook of +30%, and Outlooks stand at +28% and +19% in Vancouver and Calgary, respectively.

In a quarter-over-quarter comparison, hiring plans strengthen in all four areas. The Winnipeg Outlook is 30 percentage points stronger, while Edmonton employers report an increase of 23 percentage points. In Calgary, hiring plans improve by 13 percentage points and hiring sentiment for Vancouver is 11 percentage points stronger.

Hiring intentions also strengthen in all four areas when compared with Quarter 4 2020, most notably by 43 percentage points in Edmonton. Improvements of 27 and 21 percentage points are reported in Vancouver and Calgary, respectively, while the Winnipeg Outlook strengthens by 20 percentage points.

Sector Comparisons

In the upcoming quarter, an increase in payrolls is forecast for all nine industry sectors where data is available*. The strongest hiring prospects are reported in the Manufacturing – Durables sector and the Construction sector, with Net Employment Outlooks of +52% and +50%, respectively. Dynamic hiring activity is also expected in two sectors with Outlooks of +47%, the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector and the Manufacturing – Non-Durables sector and in the Services sector, where the Outlook stands at +42%. Wholesale & Retail Trade sector employers expect a bright hiring climate, reporting an Outlook of +32%, and the Education sector Outlook of +28% reflects solid hiring prospects. Elsewhere, optimistic hiring plans are reflected in Outlooks of +27% for the Public Administration sector and +23% for the Transportation & Public Utilities sector.

Hiring sentiment strengthens in all nine industry sectors when compared with the previous quarter. The most notable increases of 36 percentage points are reported in the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector and the Services sector. Construction sector employers report an improvement of 34 percentage points and Outlooks are 33 percentage points stronger in both the Manufacturing – Durables sector and the Manufacturing – Non-Durables sector. An increase of 25 percentage points is reported by Wholesale & Retail Trade sector employers and the Education sector Outlook is 18 percentage points stronger.

When compared with this time one year ago, hiring prospects also improve in all nine industry sectors, including sharp improvements of 48 and 43 percentage points for the Construction sector and the Manufacturing – Durables sector, respectively. Increases of 40 percentage points are reported in two sectors – the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector and the Services sector, while the Manufacturing – Non-Durables sector Outlook is 35 percentage points stronger. In both the Education sector and the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector, employers report improvements of 29 percentage points.

*Separate analysis of the Mining sector is not available for the fourth quarter of 2021.

Construction

The strongest labour market since 2007 is anticipated in the forthcoming quarter, with employers reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +50%. Hiring intentions improve by 34 percentage points when compared with the previous quarter and are 48 percentage points stronger year-over-year.

Education

Job seekers can expect to benefit from the strongest hiring pace in 18 years during the next three months, according to employers who report a Net Employment Outlook of +28%. The Outlook is 18 percentage points stronger quarter-over-quarter and improves by 29 percentage points when compared with this time one year ago.

Finance, Insurance & Real Estate

Employers report dynamic hiring plans for the fourth quarter of 2021 with a Net Employment Outlook of +47%. Hiring prospects are the strongest since the survey began in 1978, improving by 36 and 40 percentage points in comparison with Quarter 3 2021 and last year at this time, respectively.

Manufacturing – Durable Goods

The strongest hiring climate since the survey began more than four decades ago is anticipated in the coming quarter. Employers report a Net Employment Outlook of +52%, improving by 33 percentage points when compared with the previous quarter and by 43 percentage points in comparison with Quarter 4 2020.

Manufacturing – Non-durable Goods

With a Net Employment Outlook of +47%, employers anticipate a booming labour market in the October to December period. The Outlook is the strongest since the survey began in 1978, increasing by 33 percentage points quarter-over-quarter and by 35 percentage points when compared with this time one year ago.

Mining

Analysis of the Mining sector is not available for the fourth quarter of 2021.

Public Administration

Employers report healthy hiring plans for the final quarter of 2021 with a Net Employment Outlook of +27%. Hiring sentiment is the strongest since 2007, increasing by 6 percentage points in comparison with the prior quarter and by 12 percentage points year-over-year.

Services

The strongest labour market since the survey began in 1978 is forecast for the upcoming quarter. Employers report a Net Employment Outlook of +42%, strengthening by 36 and 40 percentage points when compared with the prior quarter and last year at this time, respectively.

Transportation & Public Utilities

Job seekers can expect healthy hiring opportunities in the next three months, according to employers who report a Net Employment Outlook of +23%. Increasing by 8 percentage points quarter-over-quarter and by 11 percentage points year-over-year, hiring prospects are the strongest in two years.

Wholesale & Retail Trade

The strongest hiring pace since 2000 is anticipated during the fourth quarter of 2021, with employers reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +32%. Hiring intentions strengthen by 25 percentage points when compared with the previous quarter and are 29 percentage points stronger year-over-year.

About the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey

ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey is conducted quarterly to measure employers’ intentions to increase or decrease the number of employees

in their workforces during the next quarter. ManpowerGroup’s comprehensive forecast of employer hiring plans has been running for more

than 55 years and is one of the most trusted surveys of employment activity in the world. Various factors underpin the success of the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey:

Unique: It is unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and area of focus.

Projective: The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey is the most extensive, forward-looking employment survey in the world, asking employers to forecast employment over the next quarter. In contrast, other surveys and studies focus on retrospective data to report on what occurred in the past.

Independent: The survey is conducted with a representative sample of employers from throughout the countries and territories in which it is conducted. The survey participants are not derived from ManpowerGroup’s customer base.

Robust: For Quarter 4 2021, sample sizes are smaller than other quarters, reflecting the impact of the global health emergency so total number of interviews is significantly lower than normal in some countries. The survey is based on interviews with almost 45,000 public and private employers across 43 countries and territories to measure anticipated employment trends each quarter. This sample allows for analysis to be performed across specific sectors and regions to provide more detailed information.

Focused: For more than five decades the survey has derived all of its information from a single question:

For the Quarter 4 2021 research, all employers participating in the survey worldwide are asked

the same question, “How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of December 2021 as compared to the current quarter?”

Methodology

The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey is conducted using a validated methodology, in accordance with the highest standards in market research. The survey has been structured to be representative of each national economy. The margin of error for almost all national, regional and global data is not greater than +/- 5%.

The margin of error for the Canadian survey is +/- 3.1%.

Net Employment Outlook

Throughout this report, we use the term “Net Employment Outlook.” This figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage of employers expecting to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter. The result of this calculation is the Net Employment Outlook. Net Employment Outlooks for countries and territories that have accumulated at least 17 quarters of data are reported in a seasonally adjusted format unless otherwise stated.

Seasonal adjustments have been applied to the data for all participating countries except Croatia. ManpowerGroup intends to add seasonal adjustments to the data for Croatia in the future, as more historical data is compiled.

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